Mite #2 controls its own fate ... sort of

OK. First things first. Bulldogs 1, Jets 0. That was the final score when the two teams in contention along with the Jaguar Mite #2 team in the White Tier of the Mite Division of the Northern Illinois Hockey League met at McFetridge in Chicago on Saturday evening.

While a tie between the two teams would have been better for the Jaguars, the Bulldog victory means the Jaguars can now assure themselves a first-round bye in the Wolves Cup playoffs simply by winning their final two games of the regular season. They play the Jets, who still sit one point behind them as of Saturday night, and the Sabres, who locked up sixth-place in the six-team tier with a loss on Saturday.

Let's look at the current standings, and then I'll explain why I have come to this conclusion.

As of Saturday night, on the strength of the win over the Jets, the Bulldogs increased their first-place point total to 18. The Jaguars, who have been idle since tying the Bulldogs last weekend are still in second place, now 3 points behind, at 15. The Jets, who have lost their last two games, remain at 14 points.

Now the scenarios.

By winning their final two games, the Jaguars would finish the regular season with 19 points, which is one point better than where the Bulldogs currently stand with one game to play. By completing this two-game sweep, which includes a game against the Jets, the Jaguars would guarantee the most points the Jets could pull from their final three games would be 4, which would raise their total only to 18 at the end of the season.

With the Jets locked in at 18 points, that would mean the Jaguars, with 19, could finish no worse than second place, which guarantees them a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

That 19 points, however, could be good enough for first place in the tier if the Jaguars can get a little help from the surging Chicago Bruins. If the Bruins beat the Bulldogs in the Bulldogs' last game of the year, the Bulldogs, like the Jets, would end the season at 18 points, one point behind the Jaguars. The news would also be positive for the Jaguars if the Bulldogs and Bruins tie, however, because even if the Buldogs claim that point and end the year wth 19 points, the Jaguars hold a 2-0-1 record agains the Bulldogs this year, meaning they would win a head-to-head tiebreaker.

I would be remiss to not mention the Bruins at this point, as they could find themselves right in the mix of things by the end of the season. They currently sit at 10 points, with four games to play, which means they, too, have a potential to end the year with 18 points. The team that defeated the Jets in their last outing (after lossing a 2-1 nailbiter to the Jaguars the game before that) have only the Bulldogs and three games against teams beneath them in the standings (one with the Sabres and two with the Maniax) left on their schedule.